UFC 221: Breakdown and predictions

The long-awaited Western Australia UFC debut is finally today! It happens for the first time in beautiful Perth, Australia and it is headlined by a crucial Middleweight showdown between former UFC champion Luke Rockhold and former UFC title challenger Yoel Romero. Their contest will be for the Interim Middleweight championship.

Originally this card was supposed to be headlined by a current UFC Middleweight champion and Austalia's own Robert Whittaker and Luke Rockhold but due to Whittaker's injury he was forced out of the bout and was replaced by Yoel Romero. Regardless, Romero vs Rockhold is still a fight people want to see and it is the best next fight UFC could've made.

Without further ado, lets get into the PPV card.

Tyson Pedro (6-1) vs Saparbek Safarov (8-1)

Many people do not know who Saparbek Safarov is and I cannot blame them very much, he has only had one fight in the UFC and he lost it to Gian Villante back in December of 2016. One thing you need to know about this man is that he always brings it, every single fight of his had ended in a finish, either a submission or a knockout. He's a very exciting fighter who always comes forward and tries to put on a spectacle for the fans.

He will be fighting Australia's own Tyson Pedro who has a record of 6-1 (2-1 in UFC). All of his fights except his last one against Ilir Latifi have ended in a finish as well. He is a 26 year old exciting prospect with a great personality that puts on exciting fights and he will make his second appearance in Australia under the UFC banner on February 10.

In my opinion, this will be a very exciting fight where Safarov will move forward the entire time and try to knock Pedro out. In the first few minutes, I believe Pedro will be tested and we will see how he will respond under pressure. Safarov tried to do the same thing to Villante but failed because of exhaustion and due to Villante being extremely tough and durable. What Pedro will need to do here is withstand the pressure and try to take Safarov to the ground where I think he has the more experience in. If he does that he could end the fight with patience and grinding and that is exactly what I predict will happen in this fight. I believe Pedro will be composed enough to get this done, quite possibly with a submission.

Li Jingliang (14-4) vs Jake Matthews (11-3)

Li Jingliang is a superstar in China, he is one of the most popular fighters they have in the world. When he fought Zak Ottow in Beijing they were cheering for him very loudly and he gave them a very impressive performance. He is currently on a 4 fight winning streak with 3 finishes and he is a devastating knockout artist. Li is 6-2 in the UFC and a win over Jake Matthews would propel him to a top 15 ranked fighter, especially if he does it in impressive fashion. He is in his prime right now and is a name that is on everyone's radar.

Jake Matthews joined the UFC when he was only 20 years old and won his first 2 fights before he ran into James Vick, after that he has had some ups and downs. Recently he went up to Welterweight where he fought Bojan Velickovic in November of last year. He was victorious via unanimous decision and now he has his second test in this weight class. He is a man with tremendous potential and with being only 23 years old he has a lot of time to improve and grow.

The gameplan for Jingliang will be clear, keep the fight standing and try to knock him out, it's no secret what he likes to do and how he tries to do it. Matthews needs to not engage in a brawl and try to clinch and take him down because Jingliang has a tendency to get reckless and keep himself exposed to takedowns and submission. He did it in the Nakamura fight where he was winning until he got too impatient and submitted. Matthews needs to frustrate Jingliang and negate all of his pressure with clinches, distance and takedown.

Predicting the winner in this fight is a bit tough because I could see it going both ways. If I had to pick I would go with Matthews but I wouldn't be surprised if Li pulls it off.

Cyril Asker (9-3) vs Tai Tuivasa (6-0)

This is an interesting fight mainly because Tai Tuivasa has impressed the MMA fans a lot in his UFC debut. He fought Rashad Coulter and completely destroyed him, he scored a beautiful flying knee knockout in the first round to announce his arrival to the big show. He is 24 years old and already being marked as the next Mark Hunt. He is also the sparring partner of Hunt and has been training with him for years now. One thing is for sure, if you are trying with Mark Hunt daily for so long you are bound to be extremely tough and a complete warrior.

Cyril Asker is a 32 year old French fighter who is 2-2 in the UFC. All of his UFC fights have ended in a finish so he is an entertaining fighter to watch. Both of his wins in the UFC have come via submission which is not really his specialty but seems to work out for him here. Of course, he also has 4 knockouts so he can certainly punch your lights out, like pretty much all heavyweights.

Cyril's best gameplan is to get Tuivasa down to the ground, we don't really know what he can do there since Tuivasa has destroyed all of his opponents in the first round via knockout. He has a scary resume and is a dangerous man. Asker must not make mistakes in this fight because if he does he is going to have a short night and will get knocked out. I actually think that will happen, Tuivasa will move forward, catch Asker with a punch and knock him out in the first round.

Mark Hunt (13-11-1) vs Curtis Blaydes (8-1, 1NC)

Every MMA fan knows who Mark Hunt is, he is a legend in the sport and a pioneer of violence. His fights usually end in a devastating knockout on either side and people are huge fans of the way Hunt fights. He is currently ranked #5 in the Heavyweight rankings and is looking to break the momentum of a rising prospect to make his final push for the title. At being 43 years old his days in the sport are numbered and these are the last few fights we will see from this legend so let's cherish them while we still can.

Curtis Blaydes is somewhat of a new face in the UFC having joined the roster in 2016. His first fight was against Francis Ngannou where he had his first loss, after that he has 3 wins and 1 no contest in the company. Currently, he is ranked at #9 and a win over Mark Hunt would probably get him in the top 5, or at least very close to it which is huge for this 26 year old fighter.

Hunt equals power, everybody knows that, stay clear of his right hand or you go to sleep, he does not want to get you to the ground, he does not want to wrestle with you, all he wants is to punch you and knock you out. Blaydes knows this so his gameplan will be to of course take Hunt down and that would be very smart because Hunt has been susceptible to takedowns and is not really that good on the ground. He is very durable though so due to Blaydes not really being a knock out artist the only way I see him winning this fight is by wrestling him and grinding for 15 minutes. It will not be pretty or exciting but a win is a win. I feel due to Blaydes being an excellent wrestler he will be able to accomplish that and get a win.

Yoel Romero (12-2) vs Luke Rockhold (16-3)

The main event for the Interim Middleweight title is surely a good one. Yoel Romero vs Luke Rockhold is a fight I didn't think we would see in a while but due to Whittaker's injury, we suddenly have this great matchup on our hands. I am disappointed in not being able to see Whittaker vs Rockhold but I am grateful that I will be able to see this one.

Yoel Romero is an intense man, to say the least. He is an Olympic wrestler that is just a monster in the octagon. He lost only twice in his career and once in the UFC. The person he lost to in the UFC is none other than the current champion Robert Whittaker which gives him extra motivation because if he beats Luke he gets to have a rematch for the undisputed title. His record in the UFC is 8-1 with 6 finished and the names he beat are very impressive, including former Middleweight champion Chris Weidman. One thing must be mentioned and that is that Yoel is 40 years old and his days in the sport are numbered, he might be in tremendous shape but the toll on his body has been made and this may be one of his last shots at the title.

Luke Rockhold is one of the most technical Middleweight fighters in the world. He is a former champion and the first man to ever beat Chris Weidman. His list of victims includes Michael Bisping, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Tim Kennedy, Lyoto Machida and more. His fights are always extremely exciting and as a matter of fact, every single fight he has had in the UFC has been a finish which is very impressive considering the names he fought in the organization. He is currently on a 1 fight winning streak having stopped former 2 weight World Series Of Fighting champion David Branch via strikes. His ground game is heavy and punishing and is one of the better grapplers in the division but also he is extremely dangerous on the feet because of his technique, agility and speed.

Fights like these are always hard to predict because when two elite guys are fighting each other anything could happen and it could go either way. Yoel Romero could beat Rockhold if he doesn't gas out early, composes himself, picks a perfect time for takedowns and try not to get drawn into a technical battle. If he tries to rush Rockhold he will get countered and picked apart, he needs to have a specific, smart gameplan that will try to deal with Rockhold in the best way possible and make sure to impose the gameplan on him.

The way Rockhold beats Romero is by not being overconfident, by not engaging in wrestling with Romero, by picking him apart standing with punches and kicks, use a lot of feints and mask his kicks with jab and punches because if he throws a naked kick Romero will try to catch it and Rockhold will be in trouble. He also has to avoid positions where Romero can use his power and strength like clinches, he especially has to do that in the first few rounds while Romero is still fresh and explosive.

What I predict is that Rockhold will be able to do it if he follows those things. I feel like Romero is inefficient with his energy and due to all the muscles he is carrying he gasses out in the later rounds and is not as dangerous as in the first few. I also feel like Rockhold has more tools to win and is more skilled overall in the sport of MMA. The only question is if he will be able to implement all those things and execute his gameplan to the max or not.

All in all, I cannot wait for these fights because while some of them may not be the PPV blockbusters, I think this will be an overall great card!

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