UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs Medeiros breakdown and predictions!

This Sunday we have another fun UFC fight card on our hands. The card is headlined by a fan favorite Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone who is fighting a proud Hawaiian Yancy Medeiros. The fight is definitely going to be an exciting one and has MMA fans salivating over the violence that the fight will provide them with.

Also, the co-main event is another fan-pleasing fight between Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura and the winner of that fight is definitely putting himself in a good position for a future fight with a top ranked guy.

Sage Northcutt (9-2) vs Thibault Gouti (12-3)

"Super" Sage Northcutt is back! In his early UFC days he was heavily pushed by the UFC due to his good looks, young age, and exciting fight style but since he lost 2 fights, they've eased on the promotion and let things take its natural course which I think is a good move because showing him in the faces of the fans and hyping him endlessly cause a bit of hate for the young man. Recently, he has switched camps and went to Urijah Faber's Alpha Male in Sacramento and it seems that decision was a correct one because he seems more composed, patient and a better fighter. Sage's gameplan should be similar to the gameplan of his last fight, he needs to pick Gouti apart and frustrate him in order for Thibault to make a mistake which he will make if he gets frustrated enough, after that he should look to finish the fight via strikes.

Thibault Gouti has not had a good run with the UFC so far, losing first 3 fights in the company and getting finished in all 3 of those. Recently, he has rebounded with a 1st round TKO finish of Andrew Holbrook and he looked pretty good in that fight. He came into the UFC undefeated in his MMA career but hasn't really shown his true potential. In this fight he has to use his grappling skill and try to get Sage to the ground in order to submit him, standing with Sage is out of the question because he is a slower, less powerful fighter.

My pick in this fight is Sage Northcutt either via TKO or decision.

Steven Peterson (16-6) vs Brandon Davis (8-3)

Making his UFC debut, Steven Peterson is an exciting fighter who was a part of Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series where he fought Benito Lopez, he lost that fight via split decision but showcased an exciting style that caught the eye of UFC officials. After that, he had one fight in LFA where he won via TKO and now he gets to have his UFC debut. He's an overall good fighter everywhere similarly to his opponent. The biggest thing he will have to deal with is the pressure of Brandon, he also has to remain patient and try not to get into a brawl with him.

Brandon Davis fought not even a month ago against Kyle Bochniak, he lost that fight via decision and is looking to rebound against a UFC newcomer, he needs to make a statement with this fight and try to finish Peterson. That will, of course, is not an easy task considering Peterson was only finished once in his career but either a finish or an exciting fight would do wonders for the confidence and hype of Davis. One thing is for sure, he doe does not want to start his UFC career with 2 losses in a row.

My prediction is Brandon Davis via decision. I think the pressure will be too much for Peterson and Davis will win a decision.

Thiago Alves (22-11) vs Curtis Millender (14-3)

After a lot of inactivities and not having a win since January 2015, Thiago Alves finally won a fight in April of last year beating Patrick Cote by a decision. Now, almost a year later he is welcoming Curtis Millender into the UFC. This is definitely not an easy fight for Thiago because the inactivity and injuries have made him not as good as he used to be, he seems to have lost the killer instinct and is comfortable with mediocre. Of course, I am not saying he can always be the Thiago Alves of 2007/2008 era but it would be nice to see him with the hunger and will that got him a title shot against GSP on one of the biggest stages ever at that point, UFC 100. I think, after that, it all went south and Thiago Alves was not the same.

Curtis Millender is currently on a 6 fight win streak and the last 2 fights he had were a head kick KO finish in LFA. He makes his UFC debut with against a UFC veteran Thiago Alves who has been with the company for 13 years. Curtis's weakness in his previous fights has always been jiu-jitsu and luckily for him, Thiago Alves is a fighter who likes to keep things standing and avoid going to the ground much like Curtis.

Curtis needs to pressure Thiago but be wary of his power because Thiago can counter punch you and make you go to sleep very easily but I think by pressuring him, picking him apart with punches and kicks from distance and being smart Curtis can end this fight via TKO. But he must be prepared to go full 15 minutes because Thiago Alves is not a man who is easily finished.

James Vick (12-1) vs Francisco Trinaldo (22-5)

This is one of the fights I am most interested in because both fighters are very entertaining to watch and always like to put on a show.

James Vick is 8-1 in the UFC and is a part of the lightweight division. That is not a small task to accomplish considering how many killers are in that division. But nevertheless, he has done it and he is finally getting that ranked opponent he campaigned so much for on social media. He is fighting #14 ranked Francisco Trinaldo who was at one point on a 7 fight win streak in the UFC. James Vick is the tallest lightweight in the UFC and in this fight he will need to use that to beat Trinaldo, he needs to use his reach and jab much like he did it against Joe Duffy. Looking for counter shots and making Trinaldo frustrated is a must for Vick because if he doesn't he will make the same mistake like he did against Beneil Dariush.

Francisco Trinaldo is a 39 year old fighter who is not going to fight for long, with that being said he needs to make his final push to the top and try to have a crack at the belt if he can before he retires. Fighting #12 ranked James Vick is a step in the right direction because by beating him he progresses in the rankings and gets himself a top 10 opponent. But beating James Vick is not easy as many of his opponents have realized. What Trinaldo needs to do is avoid the ground and close the distance. He is a much smaller opponent and he cannot let Vick pick him from distance, he needs to pressure him because Vick has been known to not do well under pressure. He also needs to look for a left power punch when Vick leaves his chin in the air.

This is a very tough fight to predict, both are very good fighters and it could go either way. I feel like the fight might go to a decision and I think it will be in favor of Trinaldo.

Derrick Lewis (18-5, 1NC) vs Marcin Tybura (16-3)

A fan favorite, Derrick Lewis is back after an unsuccessful last appearance in Australia against Mark Hunt in June 2017. He took some time off, got rid of injuries that were bugging him and says he is a new and improved Derrick Lewis. Currently ranked #6 in the UFC official Heavyweight rankings, he is in a good place coming into this fight because a win against Tybura could propel him into top 5 and a fight with the best of the division. But he needs to make a statement in this fight, he needs to show the improvement and let the other fighters in this division know that Derrick Lewis is a here to win the belt and does not want to be another gatekeeper. He needs to do that the only way he knows how and that is by violently knocking Tybura out. Marcin has been stopped via strikes once in his career so it is not impossible and he has never fought anyone with the knockout power of Derrick Lewis.

Marcin Tybura is a well known Polish fighter who joined the UFC almost 2 years ago. He fought Tim Johnson in his UFC debut and lost via unanimous decision, he was very tentative and has not shown his true potential in that fight. Next 3 UFC fights were a success for him, he won all 3 and had 2 TKO/KO finishes which got him a showdown with Fabricio Werdum in Australia. That was the first taste of the top ranked fighters Marcin has had and he couldn't move past him, he lost a decision because he was once again tentative, showing more aggression and skills in the 5th round when it was too late. He cannot make that mistake against Derrick Lewis because if he holds back too much he will allow Derrick to pressure him and land one of his big punches and everybody knows that you cannot eat too many of those no matter how good your chin is. He needs to be defensively smart, keep Derrick away with kicks to the leg and body, look to land a head kick in late 2nd or 3rd round and avoid any brawls with him.

This is also a hard one to pick because it all comes down to who will have a better gameplan and who will want it more. If Marcin coasts he will lose but Derrick must not gass himself out because if he does Marcin will pick him apart in the later rounds. I choose to believe Lewis will be smart in this fight, pick and choose his punches, keep an aggressive and smart style and beat Tybura either by TKO or decision.

Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (32-10, 1NC) vs Yancy Medeiros (15-4, 1NC) The main event of the evening is the fight between Donald Cerrone and Yancy Medeiros. To me, it's a more than worthy main event because it is featuring 2 guys who are all about pleasing the fans and delivering the best possible fights. Cowboy Cerrone has 13 post-fight bonuses in his career and Medeiros has had 5 bonuses in his 11 UFC fights. Making this fight was a no brainer and it will definitely be a beautiful, bonus worthy fight as well.

Donald Cerrone is a wild man who once went on an 8 fight winning streak in the UFC lightweight division that ultimately got him a title shot against Rafael Dos Anjos, he failed to capture the title but went up in weight to the Welterweight division where he had a 4 fight winning streak before running into Jorge Masvidal. He's currently on a 3 fight losing streak for the first time in his career and he needs to win this fight against Yancy Medeiros in order to regain his status as a contented and not a stepping stone for future fighters to gain recognition over his popularity and his name.

This fight is a very important fight for Cowboy and he needs to finish Medeiros to gain some confidence and try to make another run in either welterweight or lightweight division. Luckily for him, in this fight, he is fighting a fighter who was once a lightweight so the weight and size difference will not be drastic like in his previous welterweight fights. Cowboy needs to be prepared for the pressure that Yancy is going to put on him, he's a wild man who likes to brawl and is willing to go blow for blow on punches, Cerrone must not play that game and he cannot crack under pressure like he did in his earlier fights. He needs to use kicks to take away the mobility of Yancy and get him to back off with leg kicks and body kicks, he also should look for the takedown because he is a much better fighter there and could submit him. I feel like Yancy is a similar fighter to Alex Oliveira who Cowboy fought and submitted and therefore I think Cowboy should implement a similar strategy there.

Yancy Medeiros is slowly, but surely starting to become a fan favorite fighter because he's willing to go to great lengths to entertain us. He has shown a lot of heart in the Poirier and Trinaldo fights and since moving to welterweights he has looked much better, more durable and a highly skilled fighter. His fight against Alex Oliveira was almost a fight of the year, coming 2nd to Johnson vs Gaethje spectacle.

Pressure is the name of the game for Yancy, everybody knows that is the weak spot of Cerrone and he has lost fights because of that in the past. Yancy needs to not let Cerrone breathe, go to the liver with punches and kicks and wear Cowboy down as the fight goes on. He cannot go to the ground with him because Cerrone has criminally underrated BJJ skills and will submit Medeiros if he gets the opportunity. Yancy is not really a one-shot knockout guy, therefore, he needs to use an accumulation of strikes to the body and head much like Till did to stop Cerrone. Accuracy, speed, and pressure are what will win the match for Yancy if he uses it smartly.

My pick for this fight is Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone because even though he lost 3 in a row, I know that he is a highly skilled fighter who still hasn't shown us all he has. He has the skillset to defeat Medeiros and get himself back to into the top 10 of the division.

UFC Fight Night 126 is happening Sunday, February 18, 2018, in Austin, Texas. UFC Fight Pass prelims are starting at 6 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1 prelims are starting 7 p.m. ET and the main card is starting at 9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.

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